The United States and China announced this week that they have confirmed a deal on the so-called first phase of trade war negotiations between the two powers. With that, the surcharges that would be imposed next Sunday, 15, worth US $ 165 billion, are suspended on the Asian country. In addition, Donald Trump stated that phase 2 negotiations will begin immediately, and no longer after presidential elections in 2020, as planned. According to Safras & Mercado market analyst Paulo Molinari, one of the main impacts on the commodities market may be in Brazilian soyabeans. This is because oilseed is one of the most disputed products in this trade war, from the US point of view. “As China does not import maize, the effect will be parallel. For Brazil, if the Asian country closes quotas of purchases of American soyabeans, we will have to fight for the remaining volume in the market and possibly with lower premiums, ”says the analyst. Molinari also explains that the whole process of the first round of negotiations directly and worryingly affected the world economies. “This has been bothering the international dollar a lot, which allows the Real to currently appreciate below R $ 4.10, which also affects the price of soya. On the one hand we have a positive point, which is Chicago price, but on the other hand, we have some pessimism about the exchange rate that has been sustaining the soyabean price and Brazil’s premiums were stronger in the last 16 months. by 2020, ”he says. Nevertheless, Molinari points out that since September this year American soyabeans no longer have tariffs to enter the Chinese market. ”China should continue to buy soya from Brazil, the problem is the quota regime, that is, if the US gains 30 or 40 million tons of soya without having to enter a South American market dispute. In other words, the biggest problem is concentrated in this quota system, because there is no forecast of Chinese demand growth for the grain due to the swine fever in the country ”, he emphasizes.
Source: Canal Rural