Brazil’s Maritime Authority has issued its initial outlook for the 2026 Amazon dry season, warning that draft restrictions may be introduced on the Itacoatiara–Manaus waterway from the second half of September if river levels continue to decline. Preliminary guidance indicates maximum drafts of about 8.0 metres for fuel and petroleum vessels and 8.3 metres for containerships, subject to hydrological conditions and bathymetric surveys. Current projections suggest water levels could fall below 2025 lows and approach the severe 2023 drought, with the highest operational risk extending from mid-August through November. If confirmed, restrictions could reduce vessel intake, pressure terminal capacity and disrupt logistics, while increasing contractual exposure under charterparties, cargo agreements and port operations. Market participants are advised to closely monitor river levels, official notices and survey updates.
Source: Rabb Carvalho
