INCREASE IN ETHANOL DEMAND BY 2030 MAY STIMULATE EXPANSION OF BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL LAND

A study led by the University of Queensland revealed that future demand for ethanol could potentially expand Brazil’s sugarcane farmland by five million hectares by 2030. UQ researcher Milton Aurélio Uba de Andrade Junior said that as Brazil produces ethanol from sugarcane, future demand for biofuels would directly impact land use. “Our study modeled scenarios for forecasting future ethanol demand based on different trajectories of gross domestic product, population growth, fuel prices, blending policies, fleet composition and efficiency gains,” he said. “A scenario of high demand fueled by strong economic and population growth, high gasoline prices and ambitious blending targets could mean that current demand for ethanol in Brazil will double by 2030.” According to him, if this scenario occurs, Brazil will need another five million hectares of land for sugarcane crops, in order to meet the high demand. The researcher also said that most additional sugarcane farms will likely expand over pasture, minimizing the impact on native forests.
Source: Nova Cana