Brazil’s exports could increase $ 10.5 billion for the United States and China if the two largest economies in the world expand trade war, according to a study by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The organization predicts that about 80% of Brazil’s gain will be in additional exports to the US market, taking advantage of the barrier raised against the entry of Chinese products. That is, the gain is much greater than in the sale of soyabeans to China. President Donald Trump has warned that if he does not reach an agreement with his Chinese colleague Xi Jinping in the coming weeks, Washington will increase the additional tax rates of $ 200 billion from China from 10% to 25%. Beijing is expected to react at the same level. In this scenario, the trade war will definitely impact trade flows much more than before. The Unctad study concludes that the increase in tax rates is not very effective in protecting domestic companies, but actually causes a deviation in the flow of trade. In practice, the biggest losers are those at war. The UN Conference estimates that the effects of surcharges between the US and China reduce bilateral flow and cause substitution by suppliers from other countries. The estimate is that Brazil could earn US $ 8.5 billion in exports to the US, with sales of mostly machinery and metals that China could no longer sell in the US because of a 25% surcharge if actually applied. In addition, Brazil could earn an additional $ 2 billion in trade with China by imposing a surcharge for Beijing against the Americans, with more sales of agricultural products and even chemicals for the Chinese market, for example.
Source: Portos e Navios