Brazil’s 2025/26 sugarcane crop is estimated at 673.2 mt, down 0.5% year-on-year, according to Conab. Lower yields (-2.6% to 75.2 t/ha) due to adverse weather offset a 2.1% increase in harvested area (8.95 mha). Total ethanol output is forecast at 37.5 bn liters (+0.8% y/y), supported by a 29.8% surge in corn-based ethanol to 10.17 bn liters, now over 27% of supply, while cane ethanol falls 6.9% to 27.33 bn liters. Sugar production is set at 44.2 mt (+0.1% y/y), the second highest on record. Southeast output drops 2.2%, while Center-West rises 3.4%. Total volumes remain historically high despite weather losses. Near term, ethanol prices may stay supported, particularly anhydrous, while global sugar surplus caps upside, with export premiums and external risks offering intermittent support.
Source: Nova Cana
SUGARCANE PRODUCTION REACHES 673.2 MILLION TONS IN 2025/26, ACCORDING TO CONAB, WITH A RECORD FOR ETHANOL.
Published On - 31 de May de 2026