Raw sugar prices ICE will be in a range of 18 to 20 cents per pound in 2022, broker StoneX estimated on Wednesday (8), saying larger production from key countries and a less urgent demand would limit the upside. The brokerage said that higher production in India, Europe and Thailand, and a better outlook for the new Brazilian season, would control prices. The expectation that energy prices will remain high next year, however, should provide support at a price of 18 cents per pound, a level at which Brazilian mills could start shifting part of the cane crop to produce more ethanol and less sugar. Bruno Lima, head of sugar and ethanol at StoneX, expects the market to remain locked next year between Indian sugar exports, which would limit the upside, and ethanol sales in Brazil, which would prevent a drop below US$ 18 cents. The analyst also said that the Brazil’s Center-South region will likely have better production in 2022/23 than initially expected, recovering to around 565 million tons, from 530 million tons in 2021/22.
Sources: Reuters/Nova Cana (*Translated by Ia Niani)