WHEAT IMPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A RECORD IN 2026

Brazil is expected to import a record 6.7–8.2 Mt of wheat in 2026/27, surpassing the previous 7.1 Mt peak, as domestic output falls 16% to 6.6 Mt, below milling demand of 13.3 Mt, according to Safras & Mercado and Conab. Lower supply, high input costs and reduced planting incentives tighten availability. Mills operate with roughly one month of stocks, sustaining continuous import flows. Argentina remains the main supplier under Mercosur terms, but quality issues, with protein around 10.5% versus the 11.5% requirement, are shifting demand to Northern Hemisphere origins despite a 10% tariff above quota. Additional purchases of 1–1.5 Mt are expected from the US, Canada and Russia. Argentine planting for 2026/27 is projected at 6.5 Mha, down 3%, adding supply risk.
Source: Valor Econômico / Datamar News