Based on its current assessment, StoneX maintains its 2025 forecast for Otto Cycle fuel demand at 60.8 million cubic meters, representing a 2% increase over 2024. According to StoneX Market Intelligence analyst Isabela Garcia, the key adjustment in the supply-demand balance pertains to hydrous ethanol’s share of the fuel mix. “The resilience of hydrous ethanol observed in recent months, with its price parity staying below 70% in major consumer regions, has contained the decline of the demand more than initially projected,” Garcia states. Consequently, StoneX has revised its 2025 outlook for hydrous ethanol consumption, now anticipating a more moderate 4% contraction compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Gasoline C is expected to continue its recovery, with projected growth of 4.1% year-on-year.
Sources: Stonex/Jornal Cana (*Translated by Ia Niani)