STONEX ESTIMATES 608.5 MILLION TONS OF SUGARCANE IN THE 2025/26 HARVEST IN THE CENTER-SOUTH

StoneX projects a 2.1% drop in sugarcane crushing in Brazil’s Center-South for the 2025/26 harvest, totaling 608.5 million tons, due to lower area and productivity impacted by fires. Despite this, sugar production is expected to rise 3.9%, reaching 41.75 million tons, supported by a stable sugar mix and higher ATR. Ethanol output, however, is estimated to fall 1.3%, totaling 34.5 billion liters, with sugarcane-based supply dropping but partially offset by corn ethanol growth. In the North-Northeast, a 3% rise in crushing is expected, driven by better rainfall and stable area, though lower ATR may reduce sugar output by 1%. Corn ethanol capacity in the region is expanding, expected to add 1.3 billion liters/year by end-2025/26, influencing the sugar mix and reducing cane ethanol by 4.4%.
Source: Nova Cana