Brazil’s trade balance surplus is expected to reach a total of $67 billion in 2026, slightly above the $63.6 billion projected for 2025. After reaching an extraordinary $98.9 billion in 2023, Brazil’s export and import levels are returning to a more “normal” range, but should still produce a sizable surplus in 2026. In 2024, the surplus totaled $74.2 billion. The outlook for the 2026 trade balance assumes commodity prices that remain relatively contained on the export side and an import level that is still relatively high, consistent with an economy that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The soybean harvest in 2026 should still be significant, but below the record output of 2025. Oil and soybeans, along with iron ore, are the most important products in Brazil’s export basket. Together, the three currently account for 34% of total export revenue.
Sources: Valor International/Datamar News