STONEX FORECASTS 1.6% RISE IN LIGHT FUEL DEMAND FOR 2025; E30 PUSH DRIVES GASOLINE UPTICK

StoneX raised its outlook for Brazil’s light fuel industry, citing a 2.2% sales increase in the first five months of 2025, with the Otto Cycle expected to expand by 1.6% to 60.6 million m³. The introduction of E30 in August, which increases the blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline, is expected to raise demand for gasoline C by 4.9%, reaching 46.5 million m³. Hydrous ethanol is less competitive than gasoline and tends to fall by 7.8%, reducing its share to 23.2%. Mills are expected to shift production focus toward anhydrous ethanol, with demand projected to grow by 760,000 cubic meters. This reallocation, combined with existing sugar export commitments that limit production flexibility, is likely to tighten hydrous ethanol availability in the domestic market.
Source: StoneX / Udop (*Translated by Ia Niani)