NOAA RAISES EL NIÑO ODDS TO 62% FOR JUNE-AUGUST

The US NOAA has increased the probability of an El Niño forming between June and August 2026 to 62%, shifting from its earlier forecast of neutrality. In the short term, neutral conditions are expected to prevail, with an over 80% chance between March and May, signaling the end of the recent La Niña. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) attributes this shift to subsurface ocean warming and an anticipated weakening of trade winds. If formed, El Niño is likely to strengthen through the second half of the year, reaching an 80% probability between August and October. The potential intensity remains unclear, though there is a roughly 33% chance of a strong event by late 2026.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas (*Translated by Ia Niani)