LA NIÑA TO PERSIST UNTIL 2026, NOAA FORECASTS

According to NOAA, La Niña is expected to persist in the coming months, with a 61% probability of a transition to neutral conditions between January and March 2026. The phenomenon remains active, evidenced by sea surface temperature anomalies of -0.5°C to -0.7°C in the Niño-3.4 region, cooling at depths of up to 200 meters in the Pacific, stronger trade winds, and typical atmospheric patterns. While the IRI forecasts La Niña to continue through December 2025-February 2026, NOAA notes high uncertainty for this period, indicating a 51% chance of its continuation versus a 48% chance of a return to neutrality. The event is expected to remain weak, with a Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and -0.9°C, which would reduce, but not eliminate, its potential impacts on temperature and rainfall.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas (*Translated by Ia Niani)