IBGE REVISES BRAZIL’S COFFEE HARVEST UP 3.9%, POINTS TO RECORD CROP

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has increased its estimate for the 2026 coffee harvest to 64.1 million 60-kg bags. This represents a 3.9% increase from the January prediction and an 11.5% increase above 2025 production. The upward revision is largely driven by Arabica coffee, now estimated at 43.9 million bags (+5.6%), benefiting from a positive biennial cycle and favorable weather in the Center-South. In contrast, canephora (robusta and conilon) production is expected to reach 20.2 million bags, up slightly from January but down 3.7% year-on-year due to a strong 2025 harvest. The IBGE estimate remains below the National Supply Company’s (Conab) expectation of 66.2 million bags, while private consultancies like StoneX project a harvest surpassing 70 million bags.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas / Reuters (*Translated by Ia Niani)