Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy expects a reduction of 20.9% in the average price of gasoline for consumers, considering the best scenario, with the fuel exemption measures still in progress. Despite the reduction, Brazilian states contest the actions due to the loss of collection with ICMS. In the best estimate, of almost 21% reduction, the average price of a liter of gasoline would go from R$ 7.39 to R$ 5.84, based on the most recent survey by the regulator ANP. This scenario considers both the effects of Complementary Law 194/2022, sanctioned last week by President Jair Bolsonaro, and a decision by the Federal Supreme Court regarding the Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI) 7191 that is favorable to the federal government, that is, contrary to Agreement 16/2022, signed by the states in March. For hydrated ethanol, the ministry projects a reduction of up to 6.2% if only Complementary Law 194 is considered, and up to 10.7% if PEC 15/2022 is approved. The STF decision on ADI 7191 does not affect hydrated ethanol.
Sources: Reuters/Investing.com/UDOP (*Translated by Ia Niani)