ETHANOL IMPORTS SHOULD BECOME ADVANTAGEOUS FROM DECEMBER ONWARDS

Ethanol imports to Brazil are expected to become economically advantageous from December, even with the current 18% tariff, according to Datagro. Some traders have already chartered ships to bring U.S. ethanol, with the import window likely to stay open until March due to low U.S. prices and a weaker exchange rate. Imports through Maranhão’s Itaqui Port are already profitable thanks to tax benefits. If Brazil removes the tariff amid talks with Donald Trump, the window would open immediately and remain until at least April. The U.S. currently has an ethanol surplus driven by high corn production and falling domestic fuel demand caused by the rise of electric vehicles. In the 2025/26 season, Brazil’s ethanol imports rose 85% between April and September, mainly from the U.S. (51%), Paraguay (32%), and Argentina (17%).
Source: Nova Cana