CORN ETHANOL COULD REACH 18.7 BILLION LITERS BY 2030; PROFITABILITY IS HIGHER THAN THAT OF SUGARCANE

Brazil’s grain ethanol sector is projected to nearly double production from 9 billion liters today to 18.7 billion liters by 2030, potentially representing 40% of the biofuel market, according to Itaú BBA and JP Morgan analysts at the Teco Latin America event. Corn ethanol shows lower production costs than sugarcane ethanol and higher profitability, with a forecasted ROIC of 18.1% versus 11.4% for sugarcane plants. Itaú BBA estimates total ethanol output could reach 40 billion liters by 2026/27, with corn contributing 12 billion. If sugar prices remain low, production may increase further, pushing ethanol’s share in the Otto cycle to 30%. Analysts highlight strong investor interest, growing supply capacity, and confidence in corn’s competitiveness, though challenges remain, such as corn price volatility, policy changes, financing access, logistics infrastructure, and demand balance.
Source: Nova Cana