CENTER-SOUTH REGION EXPECTED TO CRUSH 598.8 MILLION TONS OF SUGARCANE IN THE 2025/26 HARVEST

The 2025/26 sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s Center-South region is forecast to drop 3.7% to 598.8 million tons due to dry weather and wildfires. StoneX also reports a 4.8% fall in sugar content (TRS) by June, reducing sugar and ethanol production despite a higher sugar-focused mix. The harvested area shrank to 7.86 million hectares, and yield is projected to decline by 2.1%. Sugar output is expected to remain nearly stable at 40.16 million tons, while ethanol production may fall by over 19% to 3.3 billion liters, partly due to a policy shift favoring anhydrous ethanol. In the North-Northeast, a 0.3% decrease in harvest is expected, with sugar output down 4.1%. However, rainfall has stabilized yields. New corn ethanol plants in the Northeast could offset hydrous ethanol losses from lower sugarcane production.
Source: Nova Cana