China will be the destination of 85% of Brazilian exports of fresh soybeans in the 2019/2020 harvest. According to the April edition of Aprosoja Brasil’s Estimated Crop Bulletin, of the 120 million tonnes of soybeans that Brazil is expected to produce this season, 77m t will be exported, 66m t for Chinese. The numbers reinforce the importance of the trade partnership between the two countries and show signs of a warming up of the grain market amid the pandemic. The bulletin consulted data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy and the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove), as well as the market, and points out that Brazil exported 60m tonnes to China in 2019 compared to 66m tonnes. t in 2018. The country broke a new export record in March (13.3m t against 12.3m t in May 2018) and has already drained 35m t this year. About 60% of the 2019/2020 crop has already been marketed and more than 30% of the 20/21 crop, the latter mostly for China. China imported 82m t of fresh soybeans in 2019 worldwide and is expected to import 85m t in 2020. With the overcoming of the epidemic of COVID-19 and African Swine Fever, which reduced Chinese swine herds, the country continues to import soy and meat on the international market and should resume domestic production of animal protein, increasing soy consumption. “Everything indicates that the internal problems will be solved and the country will import 90m tonnes of soybeans again. Therefore, if, on the one hand, there is a crisis caused by the pandemic of the Chinese virus, on the other, China will play an essential role in the recovery of the Brazilian economy and in the case of soybeans, it is already making a difference ”, analyzes the organization’s president, Bartolomeu Braz. Total bran exports are expected to add 16.9m tonnes (against 16.6m tonnes in 2019) and oil exports to 900,000 tonnes (against 1.03m tonnes in 2019), totaling 94.8m of t, added to the grain. Even so, China would represent 62% of the exports of the Brazilian soy complex and that has been the average of the last five years.
In the evaluation of Bartolomeu Braz, Brazilian soybeans are cheaper due to the higher oil and protein content and the exchange rate compared to grains produced in the United States and Argentina, being strong attractions for the Chinese. “Brazilian soy is more competitive than that of direct competitors. It is a product of superior quality and the best cost benefit for the production of animal protein. Currently, there is no other protein more accessible and competitive than Brazilian soy ”, he says. Soy is the main product exported by Brazil. US $ 14 of every US $ 100 exported comes from soybeans, with the oilseed responsible for much of the US $ 48 billion surplus in 2019 and the more than US $ 300 billion accumulated in recent years in foreign exchange reserves by Brazil.
Source: Universo Agro/DATAGRO