According to Conab, production should total 251.9 million tons, 0.3% more than forecast in February and volume 4.1% higher than in 2018/19. The favorable climate for the development of crops in Mato Grosso, Goiás and Paraná led Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) to raise its estimate for grain production in the country in this 2019/20 harvest, even with losses caused by the drought in Rio Grande do According to a survey released yesterday, the state-owned company started to project the harvest at 251.9 million tons, 0.3% more than forecast in February and a record volume, 4.1% higher than that registered in the 2018/19 cycle. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which also published new projections, the harvest will total 249 million tons, an increase of 3.1%. Conab confirmed that the total planted area, adding summer and winter crops, should reach 64.8 million hectares, and raised its estimate for average plantation productivity to 3,889 kilograms per hectare, an increase of 1 , 7% compared to last season. This increase in productivity is driven by soybeans, whose harvest was less than expected in 2018/19 due to climate problems. For 2019/20, Conab now projects the yield of the oilseed, the flagship of Brazilian agribusiness, at 3,373 kg per hectare, an increase of 5.2% in relation to the previous cycle. As the planted area also grew – 2.6%, to 36.8 million hectares -, the state company adjusted its forecast for grain production to 124.2 million tons, a new record – 0.8% higher than the in February and 8% higher than the result of 2018/19. Brazil leads the world production and exports of soybeans, as confirmed yesterday a new survey of supply and demand for grains released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to the agency, the Brazilian harvest will reach 126 million tons in 2019/20, 9 million more than in 2018/19 and 30% above the American harvest. Brazilian exports, on the other hand, are estimated by the USDA at 77 million tons, 2.4 million more than in the previous cycle and a volume 55% more robust than estimated for the United States.
For corn, the second most sown grain in the country, Conab expects to harvest 100.1 million tons, a volume practically stable in relation to the forecast in February and the total harvested last season. According to the company, the area planted with the cereal (first, second and third harvests) should increase 2.3%, to 17.9 million hectares, but the average productivity will be 2.2% lower (5,593 kilos per hectare). In the USDA accounts, Brazil will produce 101 million tons and will be the second largest exporter of the cereal in the cycle, with 36 million tons, second only to the USA (43.8 million). But the projected volume represents a 9.4% retraction compared to 2018/19. Among the other crops, it is worth noting the increases forecast by Conab for rice, beans and cotton harvests. According to the state company, in the case of rice the increase should be 0.8%, to 10.5 million tons, in the case of beans it should reach 3.9%, to 3.1 million tons, and in the case of cotton, the increase 2.7%, to 4.3 million tonnes. (Marcela Caetano, Marina Salles and Naiara Albuquerque collaborated)
Source: Valor Economico