Brazil’s renewable fuel production is set to rise sharply this year as firm ethanol prices, low global sugar prices, a larger sugarcane harvest, and new corn-based ethanol plants reshape output. Analysts say mills are shifting their mix toward ethanol because current ethanol prices trade at a strong premium to sugar, whose New York contract is near a five-year low. The new harvest starting in March is expected to favor ethanol at least through mid-June. At the same time, Brazil is expanding corn ethanol capacity, with more than 3 billion liters expected by 2026. Overall ethanol production could reach a record 36.5 billion liters in 2026/27, raising the risk of domestic oversupply and boosting exports.
Source: Nova Cana
