CONAB UPDATES SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN 2025/26 TO 668.8 MILLION TONS

Brazil’s 2025/26 sugarcane harvest is projected at 668.8 million tons, 1.2% below last season but 0.8% above April’s forecast, according to Conab’s second survey. The decline reflects a 2.1% drop in productivity, impacted by droughts, high temperatures, and fires, particularly in São Paulo, which will harvest 337.9 million tons. While the Southeast faces losses, the Center-West will see gains from expanded cultivation, reaching 150 million tons. The Northeast and South also expect growth, while the North will suffer a 5.6% reduction. Despite lower cane output, sugar production should rise 0.8% to 44.5 million tons, the second-largest ever, while ethanol output will fall 3.9% to 35.7 billion liters, with sugarcane-based fuel dropping but corn ethanol hitting a record 8.98 billion liters. Adverse weather also lowered sugar quality (TRS), supporting firm sugar and ethanol prices amid strong global demand.
Source: Nova Cana