Once again, Brazil is about to surpass the United States as the largest soyabean producer in the world. Brazil, which is already the largest exporter of oilseed, is expected to harvest about 123 million tons in the 2019-2020 season, beating its rival’s crop, estimated at 112.9 million, according to projections by the USDA. After a record harvest in 2018-19, US production is expected to fall next season in the face of the country’s trade war with China, which affects exports and drives farmers to reduce planting. For Brazil, USDA forecasts an increase in planted area. The Brazilian crop only surpassed the North American production once, in the season 2017-18, according to the USDA, that began to monitor the data in 1963. Brazil surpassed the US as the largest soyabean exporter in the 2012-13 harvest. The difference in shipments between the two countries increased further last year as Chinese importers turned to Brazilian soyabeans in the wake of the escalating tariff dispute between Donald Trump and China. The USDA report also points out that Argentina soya production in 2018-19 is expected to stand at 56 million tons, up from 55 million tons in the previous month’s forecast. For the next crop, the USDA predicts 53 million tons due to the expectation of lower productivity. For Brazil, the estimate for soyabean production in the 2018-19 season was unchanged at 117 million tons. For exports, the projection fell to 78.5 million tons from the previous estimate of 79.5 million tons. The USDA report indicates that Brazilian corn production in the 18-19 crop is expected to add 100 million tons, compared to the estimated 96 million tons in April. The country’s export estimate was raised to 32 million tons from the 31 million tons in the previous report. In the case of Argentina, the projection for corn production rose to 49 million tons in 18-19, up from 47 million tons in the previous estimate. Exports are expected to total 31.5 million tons, up from the estimated 30.5 million tons in April. In 2019-20, Brazilian corn production is estimated at 101 million tons, while Argentina’s is projected at 49 million tons.

Source: Portos e Navios