Brazilian shipments of soybeans in 2020 are expected to exceed February expectations. According to Safras & Mercado, the strong demand from China, especially in the first half, should guarantee the good pace of national exports. Soybeans exports from Brazil are expected to total 73 million tons in 2020. In February, the estimate for this year was to sell at least 70 million tons abroad. Even so, shipments are not expected to exceed last year’s exports (74 million tonnes), due to the trend of a strong displacement of Chinese demand to American ports in the second half, with the aim of meeting the trade agreement closed at the end of the year between Chinese and Americans. In addition to exports, part of the soybeans will be crushed in the country itself. The consultancy indicates crushing 44.1 million tonnes in 2020 and 43 million tonnes in 2019, representing an increase of 3% between one season and another. If you take into account that the total supply of soybeans should reach 125.2 million tons, according to a survey by the consultancy, the total demand should reach close to 120 million tons, practically repeating the previous year. Thus, final inventories are expected to rise 409%, from 960 thousand to 4.8 million tons. The consultancy works with a soybean meal production of 33.56 million tons, with an increase of 2%. Exports are expected to fall 7% to 15.5 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 16.8 million, an increase of 2%. Inventories are expected to rise 106% to 2.449 million tonnes. The production of soybean oil is expected to be 8.8 million tons. Brazil is expected to export 350 thousand tons, a 63% drop over the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise from 7.75 million to 8.55 million tons. The forecast is for a 33% decrease in inventories to 143 thousand tons.
Source: Canal Rural