The coronavirus pandemic should bring down exports in general in the first half of this year, but agricultural commodities will be less affected and may have a rapid recovery in the second half, with increased food purchases to replenish stocks in the affected countries, say analysts and entities that monitor global trade. In a bulletin released last week, the CNA (National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil) did not identify an interruption of Chinese imports of Brazilian agricultural goods. Between January and February, there was an increase of 9.7% in the trade of grains, oils and food in the country. “The rush of consumers to supermarkets is the likely cause of the increase in sales of basic items for the Chinese diet. Online food sales also grew 3% in the same period. ” Disruptions in industry and services are likely to be more severe and longer, according to analysts. But everything – even the direction of agricultural exports – depends on the duration of the pandemic, its extent and the seriousness of the measures taken to combat it. Bodies like the UN agency for trade (Unctad) and the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), which had made predictions when the outbreak of the disease was limited to China, are redoing their calculations and say it will take weeks. so that the panorama becomes clearer.
Source: Portos e Navios